Reading Triggers: Direct vs. Indicator-Based
Setting triggers in advance, plus your own local hazards
Lesson Objectives
- Distinguish direct triggers from indicator-based triggers
- Explain why no single indicator is decisive on its own
- Identify hyper-local hazard triggers specific to your own area
- Explain why a serious communications disruption triggers your PACE plan independently of PREP-CON
Two kinds of triggers
A trigger is an event you decide in advance will raise your level. Direct triggers are plain-language events — a bank holiday, a martial-law announcement, a confirmed pandemic declaration. Indicator-based triggers are slower-moving data-source signals — space weather, communications infrastructure, financial stress, government continuity, public health, and logistics categories — that give you lead time before a direct trigger fires.
| Category | Example Indicator | Typical Level |
|---|---|---|
| Space Weather | Geomagnetic storm watch, G2 or greater (NOAA SWPC) | 4 |
| Space Weather | Solar flare activity reaching G4/S4/R4 | 3 |
| Communications Infrastructure | Confirmed undersea-cable fault serving your region | 4 |
| Communications Infrastructure | COMCON move to level 2 — widespread comms failure | 2 |
| Financial / Economic | Sustained OFR Financial Stress Index above +1.5, 3+ trading days | 3 |
| Government / Continuity | COGCON condition 3, or widespread WFH for gov facilities | 3 |
| Public Health | National wastewater viral activity “High” in multiple regions (CDC NWSS) | 4 |
| No-Notice / Immediate-Action | Martial-law announcement or a confirmed Black Sky event | 1 — single trigger |
No single indicator is decisive. One geomagnetic storm watch does not mean grab the bug-out bag. A sustained pattern across a category is what earns a level change — except for a handful of no-notice, immediate-action events that justify PREP-CON 1 on their own.
Hyper-local hazards, hyper-specific triggers
Some of your best triggers are tied to a specific hazard within a specific distance of your home. Knowing your own threats and hazards is what lets you write a trigger that fires early and correctly.
| Known Local Hazard | Monitoring / Trigger | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Nuclear power plant within ~50 miles | The plant’s sirens or public notification system | Evacuate per your route plan |
| Fuel storage depot within ~5 miles | A fire or emergency event at the depot | Evacuate |
| Rail line carrying hazardous cargo nearby | A derailment or chemical release affecting the line | Evacuate or shelter, depending on wind direction |
| Major highway hazmat corridor nearby | A multi-vehicle incident involving hazardous cargo | Evacuate or shelter, depending on the release |
Doing this properly is its own workbook. The Personal Preparedness Assessment Workbook walks you through identifying what is actually near you. FFTP also offers a done-for-you Personal Preparedness Assessment Report covering your specific area if you’d rather have that legwork handled.
PACE is triggered by comms failure, not by PREP-CON level. Communications Conditions (COMCON) are covered in PLN-05, and your PACE plan is the subject of COM-01, PACE Communications Planning. PACE is specific to communications: it is your fallback sequence (Primary → Alternate → Contingency → Emergency) for when your current method stops working, whatever the cause. That fallback triggers the moment your comms fail — it does not wait for a PREP-CON level change. A comms disruption may also show up as one indicator among many on your PREP-CON trigger chart, but the PACE response and your PREP-CON level are two separate, independent things.
Related courses: COM-01 PACE Communications Planning • PLN-01 Community Situational Awareness • PLN-05 COMCON • SEC-02 OPSEC • INT-03 SALUTE & SPOT Reporting
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