WX-CON is the Fortune Favors the Prepared severe-weather readiness condition. It mirrors the NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlook and Weather Prediction Center (WPC) excessive rainfall outlook scales so that any reader already familiar with NOAA’s published products can read our condition without translation. WX-CON is one of eight readiness conditions tracked in every Daily Threat Report.
If you have not yet read the Weather Awareness primer, start there. That page covers how to receive weather alerts, NOAA weather radio, SAME codes, Skywarn, and the equipment side of weather monitoring. This page builds on that foundation. It tells you how we score severe weather as a readiness condition, what each level means operationally, and how a WX-CON level drives downstream into your communications posture (COMCON) and your overall preparedness posture (PREP-CON).
Why a separate condition for severe weather
Severe weather is the most frequent disaster-class hazard most households will face in any given year. Tornadoes, derechos, hail, damaging wind, flash floods, and tropical systems together account for the majority of FEMA federal disaster declarations and the majority of household preparedness activations. A condition system specifically anchored to NOAA’s official outlook tiers gives you a clean, current signal you can act on without interpretation lag.
WX-CON is not a forecast. It is a posture indicator. The forecast comes from NOAA. WX-CON converts that forecast into an action level.
The WX-CON scale (NOAA-native)
WX-CON uses NOAA’s published palette and tier names directly. Higher number means worse conditions. This is the opposite of PREP-CON and COMCON, where lower numbers indicate worse posture. The reason for the divergence is reader familiarity: anyone who has ever looked at an SPC convective outlook map already knows that orange and red are bad, and we did not want to recolor a system the public already reads correctly.
SPC Convective Outlook tiers (Day 1 through Day 3)
| Level | NOAA Code | Plain Meaning | What to Expect |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | TSTM | General Thunderstorms | Non-severe thunderstorms possible. Routine summer weather. |
| 1 | MRGL | Marginal Risk | Isolated severe storms possible. Brief, low-coverage events. |
| 2 | SLGT | Slight Risk | Scattered severe storms. A few may be intense. |
| 3 | ENH | Enhanced Risk | Numerous severe storms. Persistent, organized threat. |
| 4 | MDT | Moderate Risk | Widespread severe weather, strong tornadoes, large hail, damaging wind. |
| 5 | HIGH | High Risk | Severe outbreak. Violent tornadoes, derechos, life-threatening conditions. |
WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) tiers (Day 1 through Day 3)
WPC uses a four-tier subset of the same palette for excessive rainfall. There is no ENH tier on the ERO. When the SPC convective outlook and the WPC ERO are both active, the WX-CON banner takes whichever level is worse across both products.
| Level | NOAA Code | Plain Meaning | What to Expect |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MRGL | Marginal | Isolated flash flooding possible. |
| 2 | SLGT | Slight | Scattered flash flooding likely. |
| 4 | MDT | Moderate | Numerous flash flood events, locally significant. |
| 5 | HIGH | High | Widespread, life-threatening flash flooding. |
How WX-CON drives downstream conditions
WX-CON does not stand alone. A severe weather event affects communications infrastructure and your preparedness posture in measurable ways. The diagram below shows the pathway from the WX-CON tier to its expected effect on COMCON and PREP-CON within the affected region.
Action matrix by WX-CON level
| Trigger | Window | Actions |
|---|---|---|
| WX-CON 1 to 2 (MRGL / SLGT) | Day-of or Day+1 | Charge phones and weather radios. Bring loose outdoor items in before the leading edge. Verify SAME codes are programmed for your county. Routine awareness. |
| WX-CON 3 (ENH) | Day-of to Day+2 | Top off vehicle fuel. Confirm shelter location for tornado risk. Move vehicles under cover if hail is in the forecast. Brief household on rally point and out-of-area contact. Pre-stage flashlights and a charged power bank. |
| WX-CON 4 (MDT) | 0 to 24 hours | All Level 3 actions completed. Treat the day as an active event window. Stay near hardened shelter during the threat window. Position water and meds for shelter-in-place. Coordinate with neighbors who shelter alone or have mobility limitations. Monitor NWS continuously. |
| WX-CON 5 (HIGH) | 0 to 12 hours | Treat as a life-safety event. Be at shelter location before the threat window opens. Do not travel through the risk area. Expect multi-hour to multi-day cell and power outages. Activate household communications PACE plan. Confirm linkup with mutual assistance group if applicable. |
WX-CON level is a regional posture. The DTR reports both the SPC and WPC tiers in the WX-CON banner, with the worst-active driving the banner level. If your county is inside the affected polygon, the level applies to you. If your county is outside the polygon, the banner reflects national context but your local actions remain at PREP-CON 5 standing.
Where the WX-CON signal comes from
The WX-CON banner in every Fortune Favors the Prepared Daily Threat Report is anchored to the following NOAA products. None of these are subscription services. All are public.
- SPC Convective Outlook (Day 1, Day 2, Day 3, Days 4 to 8). Day 1 is the most actionable.
- WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). Day 1 through Day 3.
- SPC Mesoscale Discussions and Watches. Used to refine the WX-CON descriptor inside the threat window.
- Local NWS forecast office products for warning-level awareness. See Weather Awareness for the receive side.
How WX-CON differs from a Watch or Warning
NWS Watches and Warnings are event-level products. A Tornado Warning means a tornado has been observed or radar-indicated in your immediate area, and the action is shelter now. A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable, and the action is be ready. WX-CON sits one tier above those products and answers a different question: across the whole national weather picture today, where on the scale of routine to outbreak are we, and what posture should that put me in?
Watches and warnings tell you what to do right now in front of one storm. WX-CON tells you how the day is shaped and how to position for it. Both matter. The Daily Threat Report carries the WX-CON banner; your weather radio, phone alerts, and Skywarn nets carry the watches and warnings.
Remember, Fortune Favors the Prepared.