A PREPCON / CONCON-Style Civilian Framework
Space weather is a modern infrastructure threat that operates above the atmosphere but impacts daily life on the ground. Severe solar activity can disrupt electricity, GPS, communications, satellites, aviation, fuel systems, and the internet—often across wide geographic areas and without visible warning.
This article integrates space weather impacts directly into the existing PREPCON (Preparedness Condition) and CONCON (Continuity Condition) civilian framework, aligning thresholds, intent, and actions precisely with how those conditions are already used for other hazards.
Why Space Weather Fits PREPCON / CONCON
PREPCON and CONCON already exist to answer two key questions:
- PREPCON: How close are we to disruption, and what should we do now to prepare?
- CONCON: We are disrupted—how do we continue operating?
Space weather maps cleanly into this structure:
- R-events (Radio Blackouts) → Communications & navigation degradation
- S-events (Radiation Storms) → Satellite & aviation disruption with downstream effects
- G-events (Geomagnetic Storms) → Electrical grid stress and potential grid-down conditions
Alerts and forecasts are provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and act as objective triggers for readiness escalation.
PREPCON (Preparedness Conditions) — Space Weather Aligned
PREPCON describes pre-event posture. These levels apply when solar activity is elevated, forecasted, or developing.
PREPCON 5 — Normal Readiness
Space Weather Context: R1 / S1 / G1 (background activity)
Definition Alignment:
Routine conditions. No credible near-term threat.
Space Weather Reality:
- Normal solar background
- No expected infrastructure impacts
Actions:
- Passive monitoring only
- Education and seasonal preparedness
- No operational changes
PREPCON 4 — Heightened Awareness
Space Weather Context: R2 / S2 / G2
Definition Alignment:
Conditions exist that could escalate. Increased monitoring required.
Space Weather Reality:
- Minor radio and GPS degradation possible
- Early grid voltage irregularities
- Increased satellite drag
Actions:
- Monitor SWPC alerts more frequently
- Review power, communications, and navigation backups
- Ensure devices are charged; vehicles fueled
- Organizations verify continuity plans
PREPCON 3 — Increased Readiness
Space Weather Context: R3 / S3 / G3
Definition Alignment:
Credible disruption risk. Preparatory actions should be taken.
Space Weather Reality:
- Communications and GPS disruptions likely
- Power grids may enter protective operating modes
- Satellite-based services degraded
Actions:
- Download offline maps, documents, and contacts
- Top off fuel, water, and medications
- Reduce dependence on GPS and real-time internet services
- Prepare backup power and alternate communications
PREPCON 2 — High Readiness
Space Weather Context: R4 / S4 / G4 (forecasted or in progress)
Definition Alignment:
High probability of infrastructure disruption. Final preparations underway.
Space Weather Reality:
- Significant grid instability possible
- Satellite outages likely
- Aviation and long-range communications disrupted
Actions:
- Place generators, battery banks, and UPS systems on standby
- Secure sensitive electronics with surge protection
- Limit non-essential travel
- Prepare to operate without grid power or GPS
PREPCON 1 — Maximum Readiness
Space Weather Context: R5 / S5 / G5 imminent or detected
Definition Alignment:
Disruption is imminent or unavoidable.
Space Weather Reality:
- High likelihood of widespread power outages
- Severe satellite and communications loss possible
- Cascading infrastructure failures likely
Actions:
- Transition critical systems to backup power
- Finalize communications and load-shedding plans
- Prepare for extended grid instability
- Shift mindset from preparation to continuity
CONCON (Continuity Conditions) — Space Weather Aligned
CONCON applies after impacts begin and focuses on sustaining operations under degraded conditions.
CONCON 3 — Limited Disruption
Typical Trigger: G3 impacts realized
Definition Alignment:
Localized or short-term disruptions; systems mostly functional.
Operational Reality:
- Intermittent outages
- GPS and satellite timing errors
- Communications instability
Actions:
- Use backup power as needed
- Shift to alternate communications
- Delay non-essential activities
CONCON 2 — Degraded Operations
Typical Trigger: G4 impacts realized
Definition Alignment:
Regional disruption with strained infrastructure.
Operational Reality:
- Rolling or regional blackouts
- Cellular, internet, fuel, and payment disruptions
- Water and wastewater systems stressed
Actions:
- Implement continuity routines
- Conserve power, fuel, and water
- Coordinate locally for mutual support
- Minimize electronic dependence
CONCON 1 — Sustained Continuity Operations
Typical Trigger: G5 impacts realized
Definition Alignment:
Major, prolonged disruption requiring full continuity posture.
Operational Reality:
- Large-scale or extended grid-down conditions
- Possible permanent transformer damage
- Long restoration timelines
Actions:
- Operate fully from stored resources
- Rely on non-electric tools and procedures
- Community-level coordination becomes critical
- Expect infrastructure recovery measured in weeks or longer
Key Space Weather Triggers (Aligned to Action)
- R3+ → Communications & GPS reliability degraded
- S3+ → Satellite and aviation impacts with downstream effects
- G3+ → Grid stress begins (PREPCON 3 → CONCON 3)
- G4–G5 → Infrastructure emergency conditions likely
Why Alignment Matters
By aligning space weather directly to existing PREPCON and CONCON definitions, this framework:
- Avoids creating new or confusing alert systems
- Uses familiar decision thresholds
- Encourages proportional, early action
- Scales cleanly from household to organizational use
Space weather becomes another trigger, not a special case.
Bottom Line
Space weather is an infrastructure-driven threat, not a scientific curiosity.
When mapped correctly into PREPCON and CONCON:
- Alerts become decisions
- Decisions become actions
- Actions preserve continuity
Preparedness is not about predicting disaster—it’s about maintaining function when systems falter, even when the cause is invisible and overhead.
See also
PREPCON – Preparedness Condition (civilian)
CONCON – (Civilian) Continuity Conditions