ACH, OAKOC, and MDCOA in Context
Modern intelligence analysis is often misunderstood as a single activity—“assessing threats” or “making predictions.” In reality, it is a layered discipline made up of processes, analytic frameworks, and structured methods, each designed to answer different kinds of questions.
This overview explains how ACH, OAKOC, and MDCOA fit together, how they differ, and how they are used correctly—without conflating analysis with planning. Each concept introduced here will be explored in depth in dedicated follow-on articles.
The Big Picture: Process vs Method vs Product
Before diving into individual tools, it’s critical to separate three commonly confused ideas:
- Analytic Process – the overall structure that organizes intelligence work
- Analytic Method – how analysts think and test judgments
- Analytic Products – the outputs created to describe terrain, threats, or risks
Failing to distinguish these leads to misuse—such as treating planning tools as intelligence tools, or assuming all analysis must follow one method.
The Relationship Between ACH, OAKOC, and MDCOA
The table below captures the correct relationship between these concepts:
| Item | What it is | Relationship to ACH |
|---|---|---|
| ACH | Structured analytic method | Core method |
| OAKOC | Terrain analysis framework | Feeds evidence |
| MDCOA | Threat COA construct | Can be a hypothesis |
| MLCOA | Threat likelihood assessment | Can be a hypothesis |
| IPB | Analytic process | Container for all |
This distinction matters because ACH is about how analysis is conducted, while OAKOC and MDCOA describe what is being analyzed.
IPB: The Container for Intelligence Analysis
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)—or its non-military equivalents—is the analytic process that organizes intelligence work from start to finish. It provides the structure within which all other tools operate.
Within IPB:
- Terrain is analyzed
- Threat capabilities are assessed
- Enemy courses of action are developed
- Assumptions are tested and refined
ACH, OAKOC, MDCOA, and MLCOA all live inside IPB, but they serve different roles.
OAKOC: Understanding the Terrain
OAKOC is a terrain analysis framework. It helps analysts assess how the physical environment shapes behavior and options.
It examines:
- Observation and fields of fire
- Avenues of approach
- Key terrain
- Obstacles
- Cover and concealment
OAKOC does not generate conclusions by itself. Instead, it produces constraints, opportunities, and conditions that shape what actors can do.
In analytic terms:
- OAKOC produces evidence
- That evidence may later be tested inside ACH
MDCOA and MLCOA: Framing the Threat
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action) and MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action) are analytic constructs used to describe adversary behavior.
- MDCOA asks: What is the worst credible thing the adversary could do?
- MLCOA asks: What is the adversary most likely to do given intent and constraints?
These are judgments, not methods. They can stand alone or be treated as explicit hypotheses inside a structured analytic technique like ACH.
ACH: How Analysts Test Their Thinking
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) is a structured analytic method designed to reduce cognitive bias.
ACH:
- Starts with multiple hypotheses
- Tests evidence against, not for, each hypothesis
- Highlights assumptions, gaps, and weak reasoning
ACH does not replace OAKOC or MDCOA. Instead:
- OAKOC supplies terrain-based evidence
- MDCOA and MLCOA may become hypotheses
- ACH provides discipline in evaluating them
Why This Distinction Matters
Confusing these tools leads to common errors:
- Treating OAKOC as a decision-making model
- Treating MDCOA as a plan rather than a threat assessment
- Using ACH without clearly defined hypotheses
- Mixing planning judgments with intelligence analysis
Proper separation ensures:
- Clear analytic reasoning
- Better decision support
- Reduced bias and assumption-driven errors
What Comes Next
This overview sets the foundation. The following deep-dive articles will explore each element in detail:
- ACH — how to build matrices, test evidence, and avoid bias
- OAKOC — terrain analysis in military, civilian, and disaster contexts
- MDCOA / MLCOA — threat modeling, risk bounding, and misuse pitfalls
Together, these tools form a coherent analytic ecosystem—one that supports planning without becoming planning itself.