Planning Series · PLN-02
METT-TC: Mission Variable Analysis
A six-factor estimate of the situation, adapted from Army mission analysis (FM 2-0), for bug-out decisions, wilderness survival, and MAG operations planning.
METT-TC turns a fast-moving, chaotic situation into a structured decision. Before you move, shelter in place, or commit a MAG to an operation, you work six factors — Mission, Enemy/Threats, Terrain and Weather, Troops and Support Available, Time Available, and Civil Considerations — and write the answer down.
Why This Framework Matters
Most bad decisions in a crisis aren’t made from lack of courage — they’re made from missing structure. Under pressure, the brain reaches for the first plan that comes to mind, built around whatever detail is loudest in the moment: the sound of a chainsaw down the road, the argument someone just had about which route to take, the fact that it’s already getting dark. Important factors don’t get skipped because people don’t know they exist. They get skipped because nothing forced anyone to stop and check.
METT-TC exists to interrupt that pattern. It is a six-factor checklist, asked in the same order every time, that ensures a real threat, a closing weather window, or a fitness gap in your group gets surfaced before you commit — not discovered halfway through. It doesn’t generate the plan for you. It makes sure the plan you generate is built on what’s actually true.
- Apply the full six-factor METT-TC estimate to any bug-out, shelter-in-place, or MAG operational decision
- Write a mission statement with a defined task, purpose, and end state — and identify when one is missing any of the three
- Evaluate threats relative to the specific mission, not in the abstract
- Read terrain and weather for their operational effect on movement and security
- Conduct an honest personnel and equipment inventory that counts only what’s actually available
- Work a time-distance problem backward from a deadline to produce a defensible departure time
- Produce a written estimate that can be briefed, handed off, or built on by the rest of the group
Lessons 00–06
| 00 | Course MapGated lesson navigation and certificate access |
| 01 | MissionTask, Purpose, and End State |
| 02 | Enemy and ThreatsReading Human and Environmental Risk |
| 03 | Terrain and WeatherThe Physical Environment |
| 04 | Troops and Support AvailableThe Honest Inventory |
| 05 | Time AvailableThe Honest Clock |
| 06 | Civil Considerations & Running the Full EstimateThe Last Factor, and Putting All Six to Work |
How This Course Works
| Step | What Happens |
|---|---|
| 1 | Complete each lesson in order — the next lesson unlocks only once all Knowledge Checks in the current one are answered correctly. |
| 2 | The Course Map (Lesson 00) includes the companion guide download and printed field card order links. |
| 3 | Lesson 06 brings all six factors together in one worked example. Completing it unlocks the certificate on the Course Map. |