Good morning –
Three items driving the picture today.
The Iran deal is not signed. Markets are moving as if it will be – Brent crude fell 19% in May, the worst monthly decline since COVID-19, and retail gas is at $4.322/gal nationally, down 7 cents from last week. But the physical picture is different: only 29 of 109 large tankers have exited the Strait of Hormuz, mines have not been cleared, and experts including the Saudi Aramco CEO assess that market normalization extends to 2027 if the strait stays blocked past mid-June. The deal can still fall apart. Hold your energy cost posture.
Severe weather is active right now across the Southeast and the Central High Plains. The Southeast corridor – Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama – is the higher concern today, with a large storm system producing conditions capable of widespread damaging wind and hail through this evening. The NOAA Weather Radio transmitters in Shelbyville, TN and Hillsboro, IL are both out of service, directly in the storm path. If you have personnel or family in those areas, confirm their alternate alert paths (phone WEA, FEMA app) are active before the afternoon window.
The FBI issued a FLASH advisory last week on the Silent Ransom Group: these actors are physically sending operatives to US law offices and professional service firms posing as IT support staff. They plug in USB devices, exfiltrate data, and leave. No malware, no alerts, invisible until the ransom demand arrives. 38 or more firms have already been hit this year. Review your physical access control procedures and make sure your staff knows to verify any unexpected IT visitor through your actual IT contact before granting device access.
Full analysis – including Ebola PHEIC update (1,262 total cases), Atlantic hurricane season opening today, and the Istanbul peace talks Round 2 – is in today’s DTR Full for Patreon subscribers.
fortunefavorstheprepared.com/dtr
Semper Paratus, Semper Gumby.
PS hpoe to have book 3 out in a couple of day. If you haven’t read book 1 or 2 yet there are deals for Patreon members and bundle deals on my website. You can also find some of the backstories on the characters and their businesses at thecontinuitychronicles.net